Key takeaways:

• • • The FIFA World Cup is a catalyst, not the root cause — Mexico City’s housing affordability crisis predates the coming tournament. Rental prices have been rising uncontrollably for years, displacing thousands of families annually. The World Cup will accelerate and amplify an already existing problem.

    • The 2024 rental reform is a step in the right direction, but it has significant limitations — Capping rent increases at the annual inflation rate was a necessary measure, but its impact has been limited by grey areas in the law.

    • The real battle is formalization — No housing regulation can be fully effective if a large portion of the market operates outside of it. Until authorities find ways to make formal rental agreements genuinely attractive and accessible for both landlords and tenants.

On the eve of the 23^rd playing of the FIFA World Cup, Mexico stands as one of three host countries for one of the most significant sporting events in the world. It will feature matches in Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Monterrey, and it will be co-hosted alongside the United States and Canada.

Organizing such an event carries notable financial benefits, including a surge in tourism, job creation, and substantial foreign investment — all of which generate a local economic spillover that strengthens the national marketplace. At the same time, Mexico’s major capitals— especially its World Cup host cities — have been undergoing a level of urban transformation that has significantly altered the daily lives of its residents. Chief among these changes is the sharp rise in rental costs, which has been pushing residents toward the cities’ outskirts. According to government figures, are displaced each year due to the uncontrolled increase in housing prices in Mexico City alone.

Mexican authorities had to get to work

Legal changes to real estate regulation in Mexico City are not isolated, and what is implemented in the capital often sets a precedent for the rest of the country. Time and again, Mexico City has served as a laboratory for new policies, and when these are proven effective, they become models for nationwide reform.

According to government figures, more than 20,000 households are displaced each year due to the uncontrolled increase in housing prices in Mexico City alone.

That said, in August 2024 — after the city’s head of government noted that rentals costs in none of the boroughs of Mexico City fall below the city’s minimum wage, and that 9 out of 13 boroughs average rents that exceeded twice the minimum wage — the Official Gazette of Mexico City published a decree amending Articles 2448-D and 2448-F of the Civil Code for the Federal District, imposing limits on rent increases for residential properties. Previously, the monthly rent increase could not exceed 10% of the agreed-upon rent. That paragraph was amended to establish that rent increases shall never exceed the inflation rate reported by the Bank of Mexico for the previous year.

It is worth noting that the prior 10% cap was nearly three times the general annual inflation rate calculated by the Bank of Mexico in 2025, which stood at 3.69%.

More than a year after these reforms took effect, however, 2025 closed with an average increase in rental prices of . With the FIFA World Cup approaching, prices are expected to continue rising uncontrollably due to the influx of tourists drawn by the event. This concern is well-founded: Ahead of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, empowered landlords to raise rents by more than 40%.

Mexico City’s rental reform also introduced additional measures. For example, a digital registry for lease agreements was established, to be immediately authorized and managed by the Government of Mexico City. Landlords now are required to register lease agreements within 30 days of their execution. Furthermore, landlords are prohibited from refusing to rent to tenants on the grounds that they have children or pets.

The registration requirement carries real consequences: Should a landlord fail to register a contract within the stipulated period, their ability to invoke legal protection mechanisms in the event of a dispute with a tenant becomes significantly more complicated.

Regardless of the efforts, it’s not all smooth sailing

That said, the reform contains certain grey areas that limit its scope. For instance, it only applies under specific conditions — most notably when a lease has been in place for three years or more. A landlord can effectively circumvent the cap by choosing not to renew an existing contract and instead requiring the tenant to sign a new one at a higher price.

A separate but equally significant obstacle to the reform’s effectiveness is the rapid growth of short-term rental platforms. In recent years, the proliferation of temporary accommodation services has steadily reduced the supply of traditional long-term rentals, as more properties are listed on platforms such as Airbnb, Vrbo, or others. Indeed, every 48 hours, three housing units in Mexico City are . And from a national perspective, the Tourism Gross Product reached approximately US $151.5 billion, equivalent to 8.7% of Mexico’s GDP.

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Every 48 hours, three housing units in Mexico City are converted into Airbnb listings.

This problem is further compounded by the scale of informal rental arrangements. According to the National Housing Survey conducted by Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), there are more than 200,000 informal rental agreements in Mexico City — none of which involve formal contracts.

Forcing the real estate market into formalization

This brings us to the central challenge facing city authorities with regard to housing: The need to incentivize the formalization of the real estate market. This is already complicated by the country’s low tax culture and the requirement for landlords to enter a specific tax regime that raises their tax burden. Additionally, rental contracts are not only essential for protecting tenants’ rights, but they also are equally important for landlords — because without a legally binding agreement, there is no guarantee that the terms of any arrangement will be honored.

Paradoxically, the recent reform may actually push the informal market further underground. By requiring landlords to formally declare their rental income, the regulation inevitably creates a sense of heightened oversight — one that informal landlords may seek to evade rather than comply with.

To the authorities of Mexico City, the message is clear — punitive measures alone will not bring the informal market into the fold. Tax benefits for landlords who register their contracts, streamlined and accessible digital registration processes, and legal protections that make formal agreements genuinely advantageous for both parties could go a long way toward building trust in the system.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup will come and go, of course, but the people of Mexico City will remain. They deserve a housing market that works for them — not one that treats their homes as a commodity to be priced beyond their reach every time the world turns its attention to their city.

You can find out more about the

Key insights:

• • • Well-being is a professional necessity — Judges experience decision fatigue, emotional stress, and personal biases that can affect their rulings, making mental and physical well-being a judicial duty.

    • Community engagement builds better judgment — Staying connected to the communities they serve helps judges develop empathy, recognize bias, and deliver fairer decisions.

    • Diverse experience strengthens the judiciary — Varied backgrounds and ongoing education in areas like restorative justice make courts more responsive, inclusive, and publicly trusted.

Judges play a unique and essential role in society. They are tasked with interpreting the law, resolving disputes, and upholding justice — often under intense scrutiny and pressure. Their decisions shape lives, influence public policy, and reinforce the rule of law.

Indeed, judicial rulings may be the most visible part of the job, but they are not the only measure of a judge’s effectiveness — or of the judiciary’s overall health.

To truly understand and support a robust legal system, it is vital to look beyond the courtroom and examine the broader context in which judges operate. A judiciary that is fair, empathetic, and resilient depends not only on legal expertise, but also on balance, self-awareness, and active engagement with the communities it serves.

The weight of the robe & the value of connection

Despite the solemnity of the judicial office, judges also carry personal experiences, cognitive biases, and emotional responses. The weight of responsibility in adjudicating complex, often emotionally charged cases can lead to stress, burnout, and decision fatigue. that judicial decisions can be influenced by factors such as time of day, caseload volume, and even personal well-being.

When judges prioritize their own well-being through physical health, mental resilience, and time away from the bench, they are better equipped to render fair and consistent decisions. Judicial wellness is not a personal luxury; rather, it is a professional imperative.

Equally important is the role of community engagement. The law does not exist in a vacuum but is shaped by social norms, economic realities, and cultural shifts. Judges who remain isolated from the communities that are affected by their rulings risk losing touch with the lived experiences of the people before them.

Judicial rulings may be the most visible part of the job, but they are not the only measure of a judge’s effectiveness — or of the judiciary’s overall health.

Engagement with the public helps judges better understand how the law impacts and operates in people’s lives. It also builds the empathy and contextual awareness needed for interpreting statutes or imposing sentences.

For example, a judge who volunteers with youth programs or participates in community forums on public safety may develop a more nuanced understanding of cases involving juvenile offenders or policing practices. Similarly, a judge who attends local cultural events or listens to community leaders may be better positioned to recognize implicit biases or systemic inequities that may be inherent in the justice system.

Community involvement also strengthens public trust. When citizens see judges as accessible and engaged, rather than distant or aloof, confidence in the judiciary increases. And these ideas of transparency and connection are key to maintaining citizens’ trust in the courts.

These themes are explored more in depth in the Thomson Reuters Institute’s video series,ĚýBeyond the Bench. For example, in the episodeĚý,ĚýAssociate Justice Tanya R. Kennedy shares her experience educating youth, participating in civic organizations, and leading legal reform initiatives. The episode also highlights how service beyond judicial duties enhances judges’ decision-making and strengthens community ties.

Another episode of the series,Ěý,Ěýexamines the personal and professional challenges faced by judges and attorneys alike. It features a candid interview with Judge Mark Pfiffer, who emphasizes the importance of mindfulness, peer support, and institutional policies that promote mental health and sustainable work practices.

A judiciary that reflects society

The same principle applies at the institutional level. A judiciary is strongest when it reflects the range of experiences and perspectives present in the society it serves.

Beyond individual judges, the judiciary can benefit from diversity and inclusion. A bench that reflects the full spectrum of society is more likely to deliver balanced and equitable justice. But diversity is not just about representation — it’s also about perspective.

Judges who have worked in public defense, civil rights advocacy, or rural legal services bring different insights to the bench than those who have spent their careers in corporate law or prosecution. These varied experiences enrich judicial deliberation and help ensure that decisions are informed by a broad understanding of justice.

Encouraging judges and court personnel to engage in lifelong learning, mentorship, and cross-sector collaboration further strengthens the judiciary. Programs that support judicial education on topics like implicit bias, trauma-informed practices, or restorative justice are essential to modern, responsive courts.

Improving judges’ well-being

The quality of justice depends not only on what happens in the courtroom, of course, but on what happens outside of it. Judges who maintain personal balance, engage with their communities, and remain open to diverse perspectives are better equipped to serve the public good.

Legal professionals, court administrators, and policymakers should support the kinds of initiatives that promote judicial wellness, community outreach, and professional development. By fostering a judiciary that looks beyond the bench, we ensure a justice system that is not only legally sound, but also humane, inclusive, and trusted.

In the end, judges and the justice they mete out are not defined by court rulings alone. It also depends on relationships, context, and public trust. Recognizing that reality is essential to preserving the well-being of the judiciary and the integrity of the law.

TheĚý“Beyond the Bench”Ěývideo series is available on

Key takeaways:

• • • AI frameworks need to keep up with implementation — While AI governance frameworks are being developed and enacted globally, their effectiveness depends on enforceable mechanisms within domestic justice systems.

    • Access to justice is essential for trustworthy AI regulation — Rights and protections are only meaningful if individuals can understand, challenge, and seek remedies for AI-driven decisions. Without operational access, governance frameworks risk remaining theoretical.

    • People-centered justice and human rights must anchor AI governance — Embedding human rights standards and ensuring equal access to justice in AI regulation strengthens public trust, accountability, and the credibility of both public institutions and private companies.

AI governance is accelerating across global, national, and local levels. As public investment in AI infrastructure expands, new oversight bodies are emerging to assess safety, risk, and accountability. The global policy conversation has from principles to the implementation of meaningful guardrails and AI governance frameworks, which legislators now are drafting and enacting.

These developments reflect growing recognition that AI systems demand structured oversight and a shift from voluntary safeguards and standards to institutionalized governance. One critical dimension remains underdeveloped, however: how do these frameworks function in practice? Are they enforceable? Do they provide accountability? Do they ensure equal access?

AI governance will not succeed on the strength of international declarations or regulatory design alone; rather, domestic justice systems will determine whether it works. At this intersection, the connection between AI governance and access to justice becomes real.

In early February, leaders across government, the legal sector, international organizations, industry, and civil society convened for an expert discussion. The following reflections attempt to build on that dialogue and its urgency.

From principles to enforcement

Over the past decade, AI governance has evolved from hypothetical ethical guidelines to voluntary commitments, binding regulatory frameworks, and risk-based approaches. Due to these game-changing advancements, however, many past attempts to provide structure and governance have been quickly outpaced by technology and are insufficient without enforcement mechanisms. As Anoush Rima Tatevossian of The Future Society observed: “The judicial community should have a role to play not only in shaping policies, but in how they are implemented.”

Frameworks establish expectations, while courts and dispute resolution mechanisms interpret rules, test rights, evaluate harm, assign responsibility, and determine remedies. If individuals are not empowered to safeguard their rights and cannot access these mechanisms, governance frameworks remain theoretical or are casually ignored.

This challenge reflects a broader structural constraint. Even without AI, legal systems struggle to meet demand. In the United States alone, 92% of people do not receive the help they need in accessing their rights in the justice system. Introducing AI into this environment without strengthening access can risk widening, rather than narrowing, the justice gap.

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Justice systems serve as the operational core of AI governance. By inserting the rule of law into unregulated areas, they provide the infrastructure that enables accountability by interpreting regulatory provisions in specific cases, assessing whether AI-related harms violate legal standards, allocating responsibility across public and private actors, and providing accessible pathways for redress.

These frameworks also generate critical feedback. Disputes involving AI systems expose gaps in transparency, fairness, and accountability. Legal professionals see where governance frameworks first break down in real-world conditions, often long before policymakers do. As a result, these frameworks function as an early signal of policy effectiveness and rights protections.

Importantly, AI governance does not require entirely new legal foundations. Human rights frameworks already provide standards for legality, non-discrimination, due process, and access to remedy, and these standards apply directly to AI-enabled decision-making. “AI can assist judges but must never replace human judgment, accountability, or due process,” said Kate Fox Principi, Lead on the Administration of Justice at the United Nations (UN) Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), during the February panel.

Clearly, rights are only meaningful when individuals can exercise them — this constraint is not conceptual, it’s operational. Systems must be understandable, affordable, and responsive, and institutions should be capable of evaluating complex, technology-enabled disputes.

Trust, markets & accountability

Governance frameworks that do not account for these dynamics risk entrenching inequities rather than mitigating them. An individual’s ability to understand, challenge, and seek a remedy for automated decisions determines whether governance is credible. A people-centered justice approach, as established in the , asks whether individuals can meaningfully engage with the system, not just whether rules exist. For example, women face documented barriers to accessing justice in any jurisdiction. AI systems trained on biased data can replicate or amplify existing disparities in employment, financial services, healthcare, and criminal justice.

“Institutional agreement rings hollow when billions of people experience governance as remote, technocratic, and unresponsive to their actual lives,” said Alfredo Pizarro of the Permanent Mission of Costa Rica to the UN. “People-centered justice becomes essential.”

AI systems already shape outcomes across employment, financial services, housing, and justice. Entrepreneurs, law schools, courts, and legal services organizations are already building AI-enabled tools that help people navigate legal processes and assert their rights more effectively. Governance design will determine whether these tools help spread access to justice and or introduce new barriers.

Private companies play a central role in developing and deploying AI systems. Their products shape economic and social outcomes at scale. For them, trust is not abstract; it is a success metric. “Innovation depends on trust,” explained Iain Levine, formerly of Meta’s Human Rights Policy Team. “Without trust, products will not be adopted.” And trust, in turn, depends on enforceability and equal access to remedy.

AI governance will succeed or fail based on access

As Pizarro also noted, justice provides “normative continuity across technological rupture.” Indeed, these principles already exist within international human rights law and people-centered justice; although they precede the advent of autonomous systems, they provide standards for evaluating discrimination, surveillance, and procedural fairness, and remain durable as new challenges to upholding justice and the rule of law emerge.

People-centered justice was not designed for legal systems addressing AI-related harms, but its outcome-driven orientation remains durable as new justice problems emerge.

The current stage presents an opportunity to align AI governance with access to justice from the outset. Beyond well-drafted rules, we need systems that people can use. And that means that any effective governance requires coordination between policymakers, legal professionals, and the public.

You can find other installments ofĚýour Scaling Justice blog seriesĚýhere

Key insights:

• • • AI’s greatest strength in criminal justice is pattern recognition— AI can process vast amounts of data quickly, helping law enforcement and legal professionals detect connections, reduce oversight gaps, and improve consistency across investigations and casework.

    • AI should strengthen justice, not substitute for human judgment— Legal professionals are integral to evaluating AI-generated outputs, especially when decisions affect evidence, warrants, and individuals’ constitutional rights.

    • The most effective model is human/AI collaboration— AI handles scale and speed, while judges, attorneys, and investigators provide context, accountability, and ethical reasoning needed to protect due process.

The law has always been about patterns — patterns of behavior, patterns of evidence, and patterns of justice. Now, courts and law enforcement can leverage a tool powerful enough to see those patterns at a scale at a speed no human mind could match: AI.

At its core, AI works by recognizing patterns. Rather than simply matching keywords, it learns from large amounts of existing text to understand meaning and context and uses that learning to make predictions about what comes next. In the context of law enforcement, that capability is nothing short of transformative.

These themes were front and center in a recent webinar, , from theĚý, a joint effort by the National Center for State CourtsĚý(NCSC) and the Thomson Reuters Institute (TRI). The webinar brought together voices from across the justice system, and what emerged was a clear and consistent message: AI is a powerful ally in the pursuit of justice, but only when paired with the judgment, accountability, and constitutional grounding that human professionals can provide.

AI’s pattern recognition is a gamechanger

“AI is excellent,” said Mark Cheatham, Chief of Police in Acworth, Georgia, during the webinar. “It is better than anyone else in your office at recognizing patterns. No doubt about it. It is the smartest, most capable employee that you have.”

That kind of capability, applied to the demands of modern policing, investigation, and prosecution, is a genuine gamechanger. However, the promise of AI extends far beyond the patrol car or the precinct. Indeed, it cascades through the entire arc of justice — from the moment a crime is detected all the way through prosecution and adjudication.

Each step in that chain represents not just an operational and efficiency upgrade, but an opportunity to make the system more fair, more consistent, and more protective of the rights of everyone involved.

Webinar participants considered the practical implications. For example, AI can identify and mitigate human error in decision-making, promoting greater consistency and fairness in outcomes across cases. And by automating labor-intensive tasks such as reviewing body camera footage, AI frees prosecutors and defense attorneys to focus on other aspects of their work that demand professional judgment and legal expertise.

In legal education, the potential of AI is similarly recognized. Hon. Eric DuBois of the 9th Judicial Circuit Court in Florida emphasizes its role as a tool rather than a substitute. “I encourage the law students to use AI as a starting point,” Judge DuBois explained. “But it’s not going to replace us. You’ve got to put the work in, you’ve got to put the effort in.”

AI can never replace the detective, the prosecutor, the judge, or the defense attorney; however, it can work alongside them, handling the volume and velocity of data that no human team could process alone.

Judge DuBois’ perspective aligns with broader judicial sentiment on the responsible integration of AI. In fact, one consistent theme across the webinar was the necessity of maintaining human oversight. The role of the legal professional remains central, participants stressed, because that ensures accuracy, accountability, and ethical judgment. The appropriate placement of human expertise within AI-assisted processes is essential to ensuring a fair and effective legal system.

That balance between leveraging AI and preserving human judgment is not just good practice, rather it’s a cornerstone of justice. While Chief Cheatham praises AI’s pattern recognition, he also cautions that it “will call in sick, frequently and unexpectedly.” In other words, AI is a powerful but imperfect tool, and those professionals who rely on it must always be prepared to intervene in those situations in which AI falls short. Moreover, the technology is improving extremely rapidly, and the models we are using today will likely be the worst models we ever use.

Naturally, that readiness is especially critical when individuals’ rights are on the line. “A human cannot just rely on that machine,” said Joyce King, Deputy State’s Attorney for Frederick County in Maryland. “You need a warrant to open that cyber tip separately, to get human eyes on that for confirmation, that we cannot rely on the machine.” Clearly, as the webinar explained, AI does not replace constitutional obligations; rather, it operates within them, and the professionals who use AI are still the guardians of due process.

The human/AI partnership is where justice is served

Bob Rhodes, Chief Technology Officer for ¶¶ŇőłÉÄę Special Services (TRSS) echoed that sentiment with a principle that cuts across every application of AI in the justice system. “The number one thing… is a human should always be in the loop to verify what the systems are giving them,” Rhodes said.

This is not a limitation of AI; instead, it’s the design of a system that works. AI identifies the patterns, and trained, experienced professionals evaluate them, act on them, and are accountable for them.

That partnership is where the real opportunity lives. AI can never replace the detective, the prosecutor, the judge, or the defense attorney. However, it can work alongside them, handling the volume and velocity of data that no human team could process alone. So that means the humans in the room can focus on what they do best: applying judgment, upholding the law, and protecting an individual’s rights.

For judicial and law enforcement professionals, this is the moment to lean in. The patterns are there, the technology to read them is here, and the opportunity to use both in service of rights — not against them — has never been greater.

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Key insights:

• • • Non-compliance is significantly more expensive than compliance — Data consistently shows the cost of non-compliance can be greater than proactive compliance investments.

    • Reputational damage and hidden costs often outweigh direct fines — Beyond financial penalties, the damage from legal fees, loss of customer trust, and operational disruptions from non-compliance can inflict long-term harm.

    • Strategic investment in compliance yields a competitive advantage — A robust compliance program builds trust, attracts investors, and demonstrates greater operational resilience in a complex regulatory landscape.

There’s a persistent myth in the business world that compliance programs are a necessary burden, a line item to be minimized and managed rather than invested in strategically. The data tells a very different story, however, and it has for quite some time. For organizations still treating compliance as an overhead expense, it’s time to reconsider the math and view the broader strategic picture.

The numbers don’t lie: Non-compliance costs more

Non-compliance costs are 2.65-times the cost of compliance itself, a finding that dates back to the of multinational organizations. While the average cost of compliance for the organizations in that study was $3.5 million, the cost of non-compliance was much greater. That means simply by investing in compliance activities, organizations can help avoid problems such as business disruption, reduced productivity, fees, penalties, and other legal and non-legal settlement costs.

According to a later report from from 2017 (the most recent set of analytical data on the subject), the numbers have only grown more striking. The study showed that average cost of compliance increased 43% from 2011 to 2017, totaling $5.47 million annually. However, the average cost of non-compliance increased 45% during the same time frame, adding up to $14.82 million annually. The costs associated with business disruption, productivity losses, lost revenue, fines, penalties, and settlement costs add up to 2.71-times the cost of compliance.

And these non-compliance costs from business disruption, productivity losses, fines, penalties, and settlement costs, among others aren’t simply abstract risks. They’re real, recurring, and measurable, and they don’t stop with the fine itself.

Beyond the fines themselves, legal costs are a significant and often underestimated component of non-compliance.

This gap between compliance and non-compliance provides evidence that organizations do not spend enough of their resources on core compliance activities. If companies spent more on compliance in areas such as audits, enabling technologies, training, expert staffing, and more, they would recoup those expenditures and possibly more through a reduction in non-compliance cost.

While the math here is straightforward, the strategic case is even clearer. Compliance isn’t overhead; rather, it’s an investment with a measurable, proven return.

The hidden costs: Legal fees, fines & reputational fallout

Regulatory fines get the headlines, but they represent only part of what non-compliance actually costs an organization — a cost that has only risen over time. As of February, a total of 2,394 fines of around €5.65 billion have been recorded in the database, which lists the fines and penalties levied by European Union authorities in connection with its General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR).

Beyond the fines themselves, legal costs are a significant and often underestimated component of non-compliance. Regulatory norms are shifting constantly and navigating them requires specialized expertise. As quickly as the rules change, outside counsel and compliance specialists must keep pace, and that knowledge comes at a price. Every alleged compliance violation triggers an immediate need to engage qualified counsel, adding to a cost burden that compounds quickly and unpredictably.

Then there is reputational damage, perhaps the most enduring consequence of all. The cost of business disruption, including lost productivity, lost revenue, lost customer trust, and operational expenses related to cleanup efforts, can far exceed regulatory fines and penalties. Consider , whose compliance failures around its anti-money laundering (AML) efforts became a cautionary tale for the industry. TD Bank’s massive $3 billion in fines from US authorities wasn’t just the result of a few missteps; rather, it was caused by years of deep-rooted failures in its AML program, pointing to a culture that prioritized profit over compliance.

The findings from both the 2011 and 2017 studies provide strong evidence that it pays to invest in compliance.

TD Bank’s failure to make compliance a priority not only led to a huge fine but also seriously damaged its reputation, with revising TD’s outlook to negative in May 2024, where it remains. This is the kind of a reputational stigma that can take years to repair.

Leveraging compliance as a competitive advantage

There is also a positive side of the ledger that often goes unacknowledged. A robust compliance program signals to investors, partners, and clients that an organization is well-governed and trustworthy. That reputation doesn’t just retain market value; it actively attracts it.

Organizations that cut corners in compliance risk engaging in a short-sighted, high-risk strategy that will ultimately result in a negative outcome for the organization. Businesses that take compliance seriously tend to operate with greater predictability, fewer surprises, and stronger stakeholder confidence.

The 2017 Ponemon and Globalscape and study found that, on average, only 14.3% of total IT budgets were spent on compliance then, not much of an increase from the 11.8% reported in 2011. This clearly indicates that organizations are underspending on core compliance activities in the short term and aren’t prepared to allot further resources as the years go on. That gap represents not just risk, but a clear missed opportunity.

“The findings from both the 2011 and 2017 studies provide strong evidence that it pays to invest in compliance,” explains Dr. Larry Ponemon, Chairman and Founder of the Ponemon Institute. “With the passage of more data protection regulations that can result in costly penalties and fines, it makes good business sense to allocate resources to such activities as audits and assessments, enabling technologies, training, and in-house expertise.”

The organizations that recognize compliance as a strategic function, not a reactive one, are the ones that will earn the trust of clients, the confidence of investors, and the operational resilience to weather an increasingly complex regulatory environment. The data is clear, and the choice is a critical one.

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Key takeaways:

• • • Q2 is a wound that heals if the war stops — Oil spikes, inflation revisions, and supply disruptions are painful but mostly reversible in a short-war scenario. The exception is insurance and risk premiums for Gulf maritime transit, which are permanently repriced.

    • Q3 is a wound that scars — Sustained oil at $130 per barrel changes household and business behavior in ways that don’t snap back. Recession probability crosses the coin-flip threshold and supply chain disruptions cascade into industries far from the Gulf.

    • Q4 is a different body — Even if the war ends, the global economy has rebuilt itself around the disruption. Trade routes, supplier relationships, and risk models have been permanently rewired, especially if there is nothing structural to prevent the Strait from closing again.

This is the second of a two-part series on the impact of the war with Iran as the conflict continues. In this part, we’ll walk through what a quarter-by-quarter economic scenario would look like if the war continues.

Previously, we made the case that the US-Iran war is unlikely to end quickly. The regime hasn’t collapsed, the asymmetric force controlling the Strait of Hormuz is nowhere near neutralized, and diplomacy seems dead on arrival. Most significantly, the United States military is escalating, not winding down.

While the first part of this series was about the military and diplomatic picture, this piece is about your balance sheet.

What follows is a quarter-by-quarter map of what a prolonged conflict means for the global economy, charted from now through Christmas 2026. We’ll cover how oil, supply chains, GDP forecasts will be revised in real time, and how disruptions that look temporary in Q2 could trigger a permanent rewiring of how the global economy moves goods, prices risk, and sources critical inputs.

Even if your company doesn’t import a single barrel of Gulf crude, you could still get hit by this. Indeed, if you’re plugged into the global economy like the rest of us, you’re going on this ride.

Q2 2026 (April–June): The wound that heals

If the war ends by the close of the second quarter on June 30, most of the damage is reversible — painful, but reversible.

Brent crude is up about 60% since before the start of the war when it was roughly $70 per barrel; and Capital Economics , prices could fall back toward $65 by year-end. The interim outlook from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) now to be 4.2% for 2026, up sharply from 2.8%, assuming energy disruptions ease by mid-year. If that assumption holds true, it’s likely we’ll be able to muddle through the pain.

Even in the most optimistic scenario, however, Q2 introduces disruptions beyond oil that most people aren’t tracking. The Gulf supplies roughly 45% of global sulfur, and Qatar produces around one-third of the world’s helium, which is essential for semiconductor manufacturing. Further, Qatar’s liquified natural gas (LNG) production was significantly damaged by Iranian strikes.

Even in the most optimistic scenario, however, Q2 introduces disruptions beyond oil that most people aren’t tracking.

Further disruptions in fertilizer supply chains could delay spring planting, which could ripple into agricultural yields well into 2027. These effects don’t snap back the moment oil flow normalizes; they have their own timelines.

And here’s the one thing that doesn’t reverse even in the best case — risk premiums. The Strait of Hormuz was priced as a chokepoint that would never actually close. So when it did, that repricing is permanent and will be felt across the world as risk around other too important to fail chokepoints is itself reevaluated and priced higher.

Q3 2026 (July–September): The wound that scars

If a Q2 end to the war represents a recoverable spike, a Q3 end is where the word structural starts showing up in the discussion.

Capital Economics models Brent at roughly $130 per barrel — or roughly 14% higher than where it is now — in a prolonged scenario. At those prices, the damage stops being abstract. And Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi estimates that every sustained $10-per-barrel increase . At $130 (nearly double pre-war levels) that’s approaching $2,700 per family. That is the kind of money that changes behavior.

In this case, Zandi says, especially if the cost of oil stays elevated for months — and by Q3, it would have. Moody’s recession probability model was pushing 50% in late-March when oil was $108 per barrel. At $130, the math speaks for itself.

Again, in this scenario, the damage fans out beyond energy. Fertilizer shortages hit crop yields, and helium disruptions cascade into semiconductors, automotive, and medical devices. The potential impact on AI-related manufacturing alone could spook investors already primed to see AI as a bubble. Capital Economics projects Eurozone growth at 0.5% and Chinese growth below 3%. Emerging markets could face forced rate hikes that deepen their own recessions.

This is the quarter in which contingency plans become operating assumptions. The question is no longer When does this go back to normal? —Ěýrather the question is whether normal is coming back at all.

Q4 2026 and beyond: The different body

Here’s what most forecasts don’t capture about a war that continues passed Q4: It almost doesn’t matter whether the war is still active or not. The damage has changed shape, and it’s no longer about what the conflict is doing to the global economy. Instead, it’s about what the global economy has done to itself in response.

Companies that spent Q2 and Q3 diversifying away from Gulf suppliers have now spent real money building alternatives. They are not going back to their pervious pathways even if there is a ceasefire. The sunk costs make the reversal unthinkable, and the memory of this conflict makes it irrational. No supply chain director is walking into a boardroom to recommend re-concentrating risk in a chokepoint that closed once and might close again.

The prudent approach for companies remains clear. They should plan for the war to last into at least Q2, probably Q3, with structural effects persisting beyond.

Because, of course, it could close again. If Iran emerges weakened but intact, which is the most likely outcome per multiple intelligence assessments, the result is a hostile state with every incentive to reconstitute its asymmetric capabilities the moment the pressure lifts.

Companies are thus going to reroute their future supplies around the Strait rather than through it. High oil prices and the potential for global shortage will also further accelerate green energy initiatives or alternate fuel sources across the globe as oil security reenters geopolitical calculations. Most importantly, every organization’s supply chain will need a reevaluation in light of an increasingly dangerous world, with expensive secondary supply chains becoming more a necessity than a luxury.

That’s the real legacy of a war continuing past the end of this year. Not oil prices on any given day or even insurance premiums, but the permanent repricing of an assumption. The war didn’t just disrupt the flow of goods through the Strait of Hormuz, it broke the premise that some geographies were too big to fail and would be protected and kept open. Once that premise is now broken so thoroughly companies will need to reevaluate whether the concentration of risk in individual areas is a luxury they can afford. Many will find the answer to be no, resulting in an increased push to diversify risk away from single points of failure.

The planning imperative

Fortunately, the best-case scenario remains possible. However, it requires Iran accepting terms it has publicly rejected as existential, its navy being neutralized despite retaining significant asymmetric combat capability, a coalition materializing from countries that have refused to send warships, and mine-clearance operations succeeding with the deck stacked against them. Only then, we’ll see if civilian traffic is willing to risk billions of dollars that the clean-up job was done right. Each is possible, but the odds remain slim.

The prudent approach for companies remains clear. They should plan for the war to last into at least Q2, probably Q3, with structural effects persisting beyond. They should model energy prices at between $120 and $150 per barrel, not $70. The smart companies are the ones building optionality now because the cost of flexibility is far lower than the cost of being caught flat-footed in September.

Four weeks ago, the assumption was that the Strait of Hormuz was too important to close. However, it did, and the assumption that it will reopen quickly deserves the same scrutiny.

You can find out more about theĚýgeopolitical and economic situation in 2026Ěýhere

Key insights:

• • • Convenience has outpaced consumer understanding —ĚýMany users treat apps, prepaid accounts, and rewards programs as simple payment tools, remaining unaware they are entrusting their money to entities with few safeguards.

    • Risk is no longer confined to traditional banks — Some of the most significant financial activities now occur within platforms and brands that do not resemble banks at all.

    • Opacity enables systemic vulnerability — The less transparent an institution’s obligations, leverage, and oversight, the easier it is for financial fragility, misconduct, and systemic risk to grow unchecked.

When you think of where money is held, you generally think of a bank. However, as we look at the financial landscape today, money is being held at a wide range of institutions that often have varying levels of safety and oversight. Entities from Starbucks to Visa to Coinbase hold money for individuals, effectively serving as a bank, but often without the regulatory framework that comes with it.

Behind the scenes, it can seem like . In its daily operation, it collects prepaid funds that resemble deposits, holds them as liabilities, and uses them internally — all without offering interest, cash withdrawals, or FDIC insurance. Starbucks’ rewards program holds $1.8 billion in customer cash, and if it were a bank, that would make it bigger, , than 85% of chartered banks, making the coffee chain one of the .

This dynamic extends well beyond coffee shops. “Popular digital payment apps are increasingly used as substitutes for a traditional bank or credit union account but lack the same protections to ensure that funds are safe,” warns the . If a nonbank payment app’s business fails, your money is likely lost or tied up in a long bankruptcy process.

Shadow banking

Think of a Starbucks gift card as a financial instrument. Technically it is one, but no one seriously worries about it being weaponized for any large-scale financial crimes. Most people’s concerns about a gift card is either losing it. The real concern lies not in lost gift cards, however, but in the broader trend: Nonbank institutions managing vast sums without commensurate oversight — and scale matters. A lost gift card is a personal inconvenience; but an unregulated institution managing billions of consumer dollars in leveraged capital is a systemic one.

Shadow banking encompasses credit and lending activities by institutions that are not traditional banks, and crucially, they do not have access to central bank funding or public sector credit guarantees. And because they are not subject to the same prudential regulations as depository banks, they do not need to hold as high financial reserves relative to their market exposure, allowing for very high levels of leverage which in turn can magnify profits during boom periods and compound losses during downturns.

The shadow banking ecosystem is diverse, and each segment of it presents distinct risks:

• • Hedge funds and private equity firmsĚý— Firms like Blackstone, KKR, and Apollo manage vast capital pools using leveraged strategies under limited oversight. Their size and borrowing levels may mean that market reversals can trigger rapid deleveraging, spilling risk into broader markets.
  • Family officesĚý— A private company or advisory firm that manages the wealth of high-net-worth families, these can operate with even less transparency and often outside direct regulatory scrutiny, enabling them to engage in extreme leveraging and posing risks of sudden collapse.
  • Nonbank mortgage lenders and FinTechsĚý— This group faces lower capital requirements than traditional banks, leaving thinner buffers to absorb losses during downturns, which can be especially concerning considering this sector’s rapid growth.
  • Crypto exchangesĚý— Like much of the cryptocurrency ecosystem, these exchanges operate in jurisdictional gray zones, complicating enforcement and enabling illicit financial flows.
  • Money market funds — While these are generally perceived as safe, they can suffer runs if confidence in underlying assets erodes, which can force fire sales that destabilize related markets.
  • Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) and Structured Investment Vehicles (SIVs)Ěý— These investment instruments allow large institutions to move risk off their balance sheets, rendering such activity invisible to regulators.

Shadow banking may be the single greatest challenge facing financial regulation. These non-traditional institutions act like banks, but without the safeguards that make banks accountable. And where accountability is absent, opportunity often fills the void.

The same opacity that makes shadow banking difficult to regulate also makes it attractive to those with less legitimate intentions. Without mandatory reporting requirements, standardized oversight, or the threat of deposit insurance revocation, these institutions can become conduits for money laundering, fraud, terrorist financing, and sanctions evasion in ways that traditional banks simply cannot. The question is no longer whether these vulnerabilities exist, but how they continue to be exploited.

The challenge of regulation

The global financial system has always evolved faster than the rules designed to govern it. What began as a coffee loyalty program and a few alternative lending platforms has quietly morphed into a parallel financial universe, one that moves trillions of dollars with a fraction of the transparency that traditional banking requires. That gap between innovation and oversight is not just a regulatory inconvenience, it’s an open door for illicit actors.

Closing that door will require more than periodic enforcement actions or piecemeal legislation. It will require regulators, lawmakers, and institutions to reckon honestly with how broadly the definition of a financial institution has expanded, and who bears the risk when things go wrong. Because historically, it has not been the institutions themselves; rather it has been the customers, the investors, and ultimately the public.

The first step, of course, is awareness. Recognizing that your money does not need to be in a bank to be at risk and that the custodians of that money need not be offshore shell companies to operate in shadows, can transform how we think about financial safety.

The line between a convenient app and an unaccountable financial intermediary is thinner than most realize. And in the world of financial crime, thin lines have a way of vanishing entirely.

You can learn more about theĚýmany challenges facing financial institutions todayĚýhere

Key takeaways:

• • • The US achieved conventional military dominance, but it hasn’t solved the core problem — The navy that was destroyed was never the one controlling the Strait of Hormuz. The asymmetric force that is, the IRGCN, retained 80% of its small-boat fleet and may be able to replenish losses from civilian infrastructure faster than the US can eliminate them.

    • All three pathways to a quick resolution are blocked — The regime has hardened rather than collapsed, the diplomatic positions are nowhere near overlapping, and the US military posture is escalating, including possible ground operations, while allied support remains symbolic.

    • The conflict is likely measured in quarters, not weeks, and the economic difference is not linear — Businesses should be stress-testing against sustained disruption rather than planning for a return to normal, because the conditions required for a rapid resolution would each need to break favorably — and right now, none of them are.

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This is the first of a two-part series on the impact of the war with Iran as the conflict continues. In this part, we look at different ways the war could wind down quickly, and why none of them offer an immediate pathway.

The war with Iran is not going to be over by the end of this week.

That sentence shouldn’t be controversial four weeks into the ongoing war with Iran being waged by the United States and Israel, but it runs against the grain of how markets, policymakers, and many business leaders have been processing this conflict. The dominant assumption, visible in equity markets that have wobbled but not cratered, is that this is an acute shock with a definable end date.

However, very little about the military, political, or strategic picture supports that assumption.

While I make no claim to predict the war’s exact duration, I can lay out why the most likely scenarios point to a conflict measured in quarters, not weeks — and why that difference matters. In the next part of this series, we’ll sketch the economic consequences on a quarter-by-quarter basis, drawing on the latest projections from top economic thinkers. First, however, here is why this war probably drags on.

The wins aren’t winning…

By a surface level scorecard, Operation Epic Fury has been exactly the kind of lopsided success one would expect of a global superpower that’s going up against a regional player. Iran’s Supreme Leader was killed in the opening strikes, Iran’s conventional navy was sunk at anchor before they could sortie, and full air supremacy by the US appears established. If you were grading this on the metrics that won wars in the 20th century, you’d be forgiven for thinking it was nearly over.

Yet it is not nearly over. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Daily transits have collapsed from 138 ships to fewer than five. Approximately 2,000 vessels and 20,000 seafarers are stranded in the region with nowhere to go. Brent crude is at $108 per barrel as of March 26, up roughly 50% since the war began. The International Energy Agency has called the current situation the largest disruption to global energy supplies in history.

The disconnect between the military scorecard and the strategic reality comes down to a single, underappreciated fact that the US destroyed the wrong navy. To be fair, it’s not like they had much of a choice. Iran’s conventional fleet had to go, and it went; however, that was playing on easy mode. Iran’s conventional fleet, its frigates, corvettes, and submarines, was a prestige force built for Indian Ocean power projection.

You can find out more about the here

The force actually designed to fight America, however, is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN), and it is something else entirely: a dispersed network of hundreds of armed speedboats, coastal missile batteries, thousands of sea mines, drone systems, and midget submarines spread across dozens of small bases along hundreds of miles of Persian Gulf coastline. The IRGCN’s entire doctrine, training, and equipment procurement were optimized for exactly one scenario, that of denying the Strait of Hormuz to a technologically superior adversary. That is the war Iran is now fighting.

Even though the IRGCN lost its most advanced platforms, those were not the workhorses of their fleet. The IRGCN retains an estimated 80% of its small-boat fleet, the fast boats that hide among fishing dhows, the crews that can scatter onshore and remount on surviving craft. The US is tasked with the mission of hunting small boats hiding among civilian vessels, in a fight in which Iran is willing to lose dozens of them a day to keep the Strait closed. This is not a mopping-up operation; rather, it is a war of attrition that the US is not structured to win quickly, and one in which Iran can replace its losses in ways a conventional navy cannot. For the US, it’s like trying to empty a bathtub while the spigot is still running.

Further, the math of the Strait itself is unforgiving. Iran had an estimated 5,000 sea mines before the war and has begun laying them. The US Navy decommissioned its last Gulf-based minesweepers in 2025 — timing that, in hindsight, looks catastrophic.

Indeed, the US can sink every major Iranian warship afloat and still not reopen the waterway. That, in fact, is roughly what has happened.

…And the off-ramps are blocked

If conventional military victory hasn’t solved the problem, there are three other ways this war ends quickly. As of late March, however, all three are jammed.

1. The regime isn’t collapsing

A US intelligence assessment completed before the war concluded that military action was unlikely to produce regime change even if Iran’s leadership was killed. That assessment has proven accurate. Iran’s constitutional succession mechanism activated as designed, and a new Supreme Leader, the previous one’s more hardline son, was installed within days. Also, protests are not sweeping the streets. Ideological regimes under external threat tend to harden, not fracture. Indeed, both the Taliban and Hamas have survived worse. The Iranian Islamic Republic, whatever else you want to say about it, appears to be surviving this conflict as well.

2. Diplomacy has nowhere to go

Iran rejected the 15-point plan offered by the US and published five counterdemands, including recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, which is a nonstarter for the US. Iran’s foreign minister says Tehran has no intention of negotiating, even as President Donald J. Trump insists talks are continuing. These positions aren’t close to overlapping, and both sides are staking their credibility on not budging first.

And Iran has good reason to believe time is on its side. The war is deeply unpopular in the US and the same affordability anxiety that swept Republicans into power is now threatening to sweep them out in the midterms. Tehran knows for every day the war goes on, they get to roll the dice that Trump will back out, giving them a strong incentive to get as many rolls as they can.

3. The military posture is escalating, not resolving

Ground troops, including paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne, are en route to the Gulf or have received deployment orders. Reports indicate the White House is weighing a seizure of Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil terminal, an operation that would put American boots on Iranian soil for the first time. Seven allied nations signed a statement supporting Strait security, but it’s a paperwork alliance, lacking the kind of committed hardware needed to force a solution to the Strait’s closure.

What does this mean for business?

The Iranian regime isn’t folding, diplomacy doesn’t seem to be catching on, and the US military posture is expanding. None of the conditions point to a rapid resolution, and in fact, several of them point to a prolonged conflict.

If this war is measured in quarters rather than weeks, the economic consequences stop being a temporary, albeit painful price spike and start being a structural disruptive event, one that reshapes supply chains, reprices risk, and forces companies to make hard choices about where and how they operate. The difference between a three-week war and a three-quarter war is not a difference of magnitude, it is a difference in kind.

In the concluding part of this series, we’ll walk through what a quarter-by-quarter economic scenario would look like if the war continues.

Key takeaways:

• • • An additional funding stream, not a replacement — Ethical capital has the potential to supplement existing access to justice infrastructure by introducing a justice finance mechanism that can fund cases with measurable social and environmental impact.

    • Technology as trust infrastructure — AI and smart technologies can provide the governance scaffolding required for ethical capital to flow at scale, including standardizing assessment, impact measurement, and oversight.

    • Capital is not scarce; allocation is — The true bottleneck is not the availability of funds; rather it’s the disciplined, investment-grade legal judgment required to evaluate risk, ensure compliance, and measure impact in a way that makes justice outcomes investable.

Kayee Cheung & Melina Gisler, Co-Founders of justice finance platform Edenreach, are co-authors of this blog post

Access to justice is typically framed as a resource problem — the idea that there are too few legal aid lawyers, too little philanthropic funding, and too many people navigating civil disputes alone. This often results in the majority of individuals who face civil legal challenges doing so without representation, often because they cannot afford it.

Yet this crisis exists alongside a striking paradox. While 5.1 billion people worldwide face unmet justice needs, an estimated $3.3 trillion in mission-aligned capital — held in donor-advised funds, philanthropic portfolios, private foundations, and impact investment vehicles — remains largely disconnected from solutions.

Unlocking even a fraction of this capital could introduce a meaningful parallel funding stream — one that’s capable of supporting cases with potential impacts that currently fall outside traditional funding models. Rather than depending on charity or contingency, what if justice also attracted disciplined, impact-aligned investment in cases themselves, in addition to additional funding that could support technology?

Recent efforts have expanded investor awareness of justice-related innovation. Programs like Village Capital’s have helped demystify the sector and catalyze funding for the technology serving justice-impacted communities. Justice tech, or impact-driven direct-to-consumer legal tech, has grown exponentially in the last few years along with increased investor interest and user awareness.

Litigation finance has also grown, but its structure is narrowly optimized for high-value commercial claims with a strong financial upside. Traditional funders typically seek 5- to 10-times returns, prioritizing large corporate disputes and excluding cases with significant social value but lower monetary recovery, such as consumer protection claims, housing code enforcement, environmental accountability, or systemic health negligence.

Justice finance offers a different approach. By channeling capital from the impact investment market toward the justice system and aligning legal case funding with established impact measurement frameworks like the , it reframes certain categories of legal action as dual-return opportunities, covering financial and social.

This is not philanthropy repackaged. It’s the idea that measurable justice outcomes can form the basis of an investable asset class, if they’re properly structured, governed, and evaluated.

Technology as trust infrastructure

While mission-aligned capital is widely available, the ability to evaluate legal matters with the necessary rigor remains limited. Responsibly allocating funds to legal matters requires complex expertise, including legal merit assessment, financial risk modeling, regulatory compliance, and impact evaluation. Cases must be considered not only for their likelihood of success and recovery potential, but also for measurable social or environmental outcomes.

Today, that assessment is largely manual and capacity-bound by small teams. The result is a structural bottleneck as capital waits on scalable, trusted evaluation and allocation.

Without a way to standardize and responsibly scale analysis of the double bottom line, however, justice funding remains bespoke, even when resources are available.

AI-enabled systems can play a transformative role by standardizing assessment frameworks and supporting disciplined capital allocation at scale. By encoding assessment criteria, decision pathways, and compliance safeguards and then mapping case characteristics to impact metrics, technology can enable consistency and allow legal and financial experts to evaluate exponentially more matters without lowering their standards.

And by integrating legal assessment, financial modeling, and impact alignment within a governed tech framework, justice finance platforms like can function as the connective tissue. Through the platform, impact metrics are applied consistently while human experts remain responsible for final determinations, thereby reducing friction, increasing transparency, and supporting auditability.

When incentives align

It’s no coincidence that many of the leaders exploring justice finance models are women. Globally, women experience legal problems at disproportionately higher rates than men yet are less likely to obtain formal assistance. Women also control significant pools of global wealth and are more likely to . Indeed, 75% of women believe investing responsibly is more important than returns alone, and female investors are almost twice as likely as male counterparts to prioritize environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) factors when making investment decisions, .

When those most affected by systemic barriers also shape capital allocation decisions, structural change becomes more feasible. Despite facing steep barriers in legal tech funding (just 2% goes to female founders), women represent in access-to-justice legal tech, compared to just 13.8% across legal tech overall.

This alignment between lived experience, innovation leadership, and capital stewardship creates an opportunity to reconfigure incentives in favor of meaningful change.

Expanding funding and impact

Justice financing will not resolve the justice gap on its own. Mission-focused tools for self-represented parties, legal aid, and court reform remain essential components of a functioning justice ecosystem. However, ethical capital represents an additional structural layer that can expand the range of cases and remedies that receive financial support.

Impact orientation can accommodate longer time horizons, alternative dispute resolution pathways, and remedies that extend beyond monetary damages. In certain matters, particularly those involving environmental harm, systemic consumer violations, or community-wide injustice, capital structured around impact metrics may identify and enable solutions that traditional litigation finance models do not prioritize.

For example, capital aligned with defined impact frameworks may support outcomes that include remediation programs, compliance reforms, or community investments alongside financial recovery. These approaches can create durable benefits that outlast a single judgment or settlement.

Of course, solving deep-rooted inequities and legal system complexity requires more than new tools and new investors. It requires designing capital pathways that are repeatable, accountable, and aligned with measurable public benefit.

Although justice finance may not be a fit for every case and has yet to see widespread uptake, it does have the potential to reach cases that currently fall through the cracks — cases that have merit, despite falling outside traditional litigation finance models and legal aid or impact litigation eligibility criteria.

You can find other installments of our Scaling Justice blog series here

Key highlights:

• • • Tax credit transferability survived intact— The OBBBA preserved Section 6418 transferability rules despite earlier proposals to sunset or repeal them.

    • AI-driven data center boom may revive renewable energy tax credits— With data centers projected to consume 12% of all US energy by 2028, large operators have strong incentives to advocate for preserving and expanding renewable tax credits to meet massive energy demands through solar, geothermal, and battery storage solutions.

    • 2026 market conditions favor buyers due to supply-demand imbalance—Increased supply of tax credits (particularly Section 45Z clean fuel production credits) combined with reduced buyer competition from provisions like Section 174 and bonus depreciation has created advantageous pricing.

At the start of the current Trump administration, green energy tax credits were expected to be slashed or disappear altogether. In reality, significant changes emerged instead of ceasing to exist. More specifically, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), passed in July 2025, kept the transferability rules around green energy tax credits intact.

As a result, the market for these credits remains robust in 2026 and 2027, says , an energy tax authority and principal at accounting firm CliftonLarsonAllen (CLA). In addition, multiple credits still have runway, and near-term dynamics in 2026 may favor buyers.

OBBBA’s changes result in shifts in marketplace conditions

When the OBBBA bill passed, the specifics revealed a more optimistic picture than many understand. According to Hill, specific examples include:

• • Wind and solar projects — Developers that begin construction by July 4, 2026, still have a four-year window to complete their projects and still claim credits. Even projects that miss this construction deadline can qualify if they’re placed in service by December 31, 2027.
  • Clean fuel production credits — Clean fuel production credits, detailed in OBBBA’s Section 45Z, received an extended runway through 2029.
  • Tax credit transferability — The tax credit transferability aspect under Section 6418 remained whole, despite previous versions of the bill proposing either a sunset date or outright repeal of transferability. This fact provides a level of marketplace certainty that can act as critical liquidity for developers that typically lack the tax liability to use credits themselves.

In addition, the legislation altered the buyer and seller environment. Provisions including OBBBA’s Section 174 and bonus depreciation generated additional deductions for certain companies, and as a result, reduced those companies’ 2025 corporate tax liability. Simultaneously, Section 45Z clean fuel production tax credits came into force and created a supply-demand imbalance that favors buyers.

Overall, in the latter half of 2025, Hill describes the marketplace as favorable for buyers because of an increased supply of tax credits that were for sale previously with fewer buyers. Into 2026 and beyond, both developers and corporate buyers still have significant opportunities to participate in the tax credit marketplace, explains Hill.

AI-related data center demand may spur new proposals for renewables tax credits

The explosive proliferation of data centers because of the growing AI demand across the United States may become the unexpected champion for renewable energy tax credits. Hundreds of facilities are currently under construction, and the energy demand implications are staggering. In fact, the projects that by 2028, data centers will consume 12% of all US energy.

Renewable energy technologies are emerging as essential solutions to meet these demands. Solar power, as a tried-and-true technology, offers ideal supplementation for data center operations; and geothermal heating and cooling systems directly address the massive temperature control challenges these facilities face. Perhaps most significantly, battery storage is rapidly becoming standard operating procedure, with both grid-based and solar-array-tied battery systems providing critical backup power.

These developments carry substantial policy implications. In fact, large data center operators have incentives to become vocal advocates for preserving and expanding renewable tax credits, says , a leader in federal tax strategies at CLA. “We want our AI, we want our cloud-based services. To do that… we need massive data centers and massive computing demands,” DePrima explains. “And that in turn requires massive amounts of energy consumption, which renewables can certainly supplement.” This, in turn, creates the potential for a renewable energy tax credit “comeback” within two to three years, he adds.

Guidance for buyers and sellers

Looking ahead to 2026 and beyond, both buyers and sellers of renewable energy tax credits should recognize that significant opportunities remain despite regulatory changes. More specifically:

For buyers — Buyers should act now to capitalize on favorable market conditions. With increased credit supply and reduced buyer competition due to provisions like Section 174 and bonus depreciation, pricing has become more advantageous. Buyers of renewable energy tax credits should consider structuring 2026 transactions to directly offset estimated tax payments throughout the year, thereby improving cash flow by making payments to sellers rather than the IRS. Financial institutions remain particularly well-positioned as buyers, as many have explored tax credit carryback opportunities to increase their tax savings even further.

For sellers and developers — Renewable energy tax credits sellers and energy project developers can use tax-credit monetization as a critical component of project financing because the ability to convert credits into immediate cash proceeds is essential for paying down debt and funding new projects. Despite initial concerns, substantial opportunities remain with credits outlined in Sections 45Z, 45X, 48E, and 45Y which are transferable and viable through 2029 and beyond.

In either case, tax credit transferability under Section 6418 offers key opportunities in the marketplace. Whether buyers are looking to reduce their corporate tax burden while supporting clean energy goals, or developers are seeking to monetize renewable projects — tax credits offer incentives to move forward.

The information contained herein is general in nature and is not intended, and should not be construed, as legal, accounting, or tax advice or opinion provided by CliftonLarsonAllen LLP to the reader. The reader also is cautioned that this material may not be applicable to, or suitable for, the reader’s specific circumstances or needs, and may require consideration of nontax and other tax factors if any action is to be contemplated. The reader should contact his or her CliftonLarsonAllen LLP or other tax professional prior to taking any action based upon this information. CliftonLarsonAllen LLP assumes no obligation to inform the reader of any changes in tax laws or other factors that could affect the information contained herein.

You can find out more about renewable energy tax credits here